In a complex international environment, what are the trends shaping international logistics in 2022?

Phases of adjustment in economic globalization, coupled with the outbreak and spread of the COVID‑19 pandemic, have brought international logistics and supply chains to a critical juncture of profound transformation. — Shifts in major powers’ policies and geopolitical conflicts have further amplified the impact of these changes, making them a focal point of international attention and national policy over the past two years. Nevertheless, regardless of the efforts, reforms, or adjustments undertaken by the key stakeholders, the most conspicuous features of the international logistics sector—such as high costs and congestion—will continue to periodically strain the international community’s already fragile nerves this year.

Despite this, international logistics has been one of the few sectors that, over the past two years, In the “star industry,” even leading companies have seen their revenues surge, yet the global supply chain—anchored by international logistics—has struggled to eke its way into 2022, barely managing to stay afloat.

Overall, In 2022, the international logistics industry, set against a backdrop of persistently high freight rates and ongoing adjustments to capacity structures, will continue to navigate the global supply-chain challenges exacerbated by the pandemic. Throughout this process, key trends will emerge: a slight easing of the imbalance between supply and demand for transport capacity, continued consolidation through mergers and acquisitions, expanding investment in emerging technologies, and the accelerated rise of “green” logistics. Industry players must not only address pressing current challenges but also reimagine and chart a course that aligns with future opportunities.

Trend one:    The imbalance between transport capacity and demand has eased slightly.

Although the imbalance between supply and demand for transport capacity has long been a persistent issue in the international logistics industry, it has continued to worsen in recent years. The pandemic that erupted in 2020 served as a powerful catalyst, exacerbating capacity constraints and intensifying supply-demand imbalances, ultimately leading to a partial disconnect between international transport capacity allocation and global supply-chain demand, with profound adverse effects on the world economy and people’s livelihoods.

It is important to emphasize here that the so‑called imbalance between transport capacity and demand primarily refers to a structural mismatch between capacity allocation and actual needs, rather than an absolute shortage of capacity. This is because global transport capacity in… Following the 2008 financial crisis, the industry experienced a decade of rapid growth, with container fleet capacity reaching 23.559 million TEUs by 2020. Even at the end of 2020, when supply and demand were extremely tight, global shipping capacity still remained underutilized at 2.2%.

As is well known, over the past two years, the most direct cause of the severe imbalance between international shipping capacity and demand has been the sudden outbreak of the pandemic, which disrupted the timely and efficient coordination among key links in global logistics—such as cargo collection and distribution, transportation, and warehousing. The stringent anti-pandemic measures implemented by various countries, coupled with disparities in the pace of economic recovery, have led to an excessive concentration of global transport capacity on a limited number of routes and ports, leaving insufficient resources—including containers, vessels, personnel, and infrastructure—to meet the evolving market demands. Consequently, shortages of warehouse space, containers, and manpower, along with closely related issues such as price hikes, congestion, delays, and service disruptions, have become prominent challenges in international logistics over the past two years. Fortunately, since… Starting in the second half of 2021, as COVID‑19 control measures in Europe and the United States were gradually eased and supply chains underwent accelerated restructuring, the aforementioned challenges in international logistics have begun to ease—both freight rate increases and port congestion durations are showing signs of improvement.

In 2022, as European and American countries, along with most major global economies, further eased pandemic‑related restrictions and rolled out a series of measures to stimulate economic recovery, the downward trend in international logistics pressures that began last year is likely to persist. However, given that addressing capacity mismatches will take time and cannot be resolved in the short term, the imbalance between supply and demand for shipping capacity is expected to remain unresolved throughout 2022. This suggests that, barring any unforeseen shocks that could exacerbate capacity constraints, a sharp surge in freight rates is unlikely to recur in 2022, and it is unrealistic to expect the international logistics market to return to its pre‑pandemic state.

Trend Two:   Industry M&A and consolidation continue to advance.

Supply-chain disruptions and rising profitability have significantly accelerated M&A activity in the international logistics sector over the past two years. This rapid surge in mergers and acquisitions is also regarded as the most far-reaching transformation to have reshaped the industry in recent years.

Stimulated by the supply-chain crisis triggered by the pandemic, newly launched mergers and acquisitions among international logistics firms are not merely aimed at achieving economies of scale; more importantly, they seek to integrate and optimize service capabilities—particularly end-to-end operational expertise—thereby strengthening core competitiveness, enhancing the resilience and stability of corporate logistics services, and meeting the urgent demands of governments worldwide, especially major economies, for global supply-chain security and stability. The substantial profit growth experienced by international logistics companies, particularly global shipping lines, over the past two years has provided them with ample financial resources to pursue industry‑wide M&A activity. “Ammunition” and confidence.

British institution The “Logistics Confidence Index” released at the end of 2021 shows that 42% of industry respondents consider corporate M&A to be one of the most important topics discussed by their boards of directors. This figure represents the highest level recorded since data collection began in 2012. For the international logistics sector, strong corporate appetite, ample capital, and pressing market demands all suggest that mergers and acquisitions will remain a defining theme for industry development in 2022.

However, after experiencing Following the M&A boom of 2020–2021, this year’s consolidation in the international logistics sector is likely to focus more on vertical integration across upstream and downstream segments to bolster resilience against market shocks— a strategy that global shipping giant Maersk has already pioneered. Meanwhile, technology acquisitions will continue to play a pivotal role in helping international logistics firms maintain and enhance their competitiveness; horizontal mergers and acquisitions will serve as an effective means for freight forwarders to build competitive moats or meet shippers’ expanding needs. In the long term, the ongoing surge in M&A activity and industry consolidation will not only drive further concentration within the international logistics sector but also compel logistics companies to continually refine their operational architectures and capacity allocations to better support stable supply chains across markets, thereby shaping the industry’s trajectory over time.

      Trend Three: Investment in emerging technologies continues to grow.

Although the international logistics industry has long been actively exploring ways to leverage new technologies to drive growth, nevertheless… The pandemic that erupted in 2020 undoubtedly accelerated the adoption of new technologies in the international logistics sector. To address the logistical challenges posed by the crisis, numerous emerging technologies have found practical applications within the industry.

Objectively speaking, the rapid growth in investment and application of new technologies within the international logistics sector over the past two years has largely been driven by the practical needs spurred by the pandemic at multiple levels. On the one hand, the COVID‑19 crisis has profoundly reshaped how consumers interact with suppliers of goods and services, imposing new requirements on the movement of products and services from producers to end users; adopting and deploying cutting-edge technologies and equipment has long been one of the primary ways for companies to meet these evolving market demands. On the other hand, labor shortages and supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic have further prompted the logistics industry to accelerate the integration of new technologies, thereby streamlining operations and mitigating delays and disruptions resulting from the pandemic itself and associated public health measures.

After two years of exploration and adjustment, international logistics companies will more clearly and resolutely integrate their pandemic‑response strategies with the technological transformation trends already underway, further advancing the industry’s drive toward greater automation, intelligence, and digitalization. To this end, emerging technologies such as the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, intelligent automation, robotics, and blockchain will see increasingly widespread adoption across key international logistics processes—including transportation, warehousing, stacking, and distribution. These innovations not only help enhance the stability and controllability of global logistics operations but also reduce operational costs and boost corporate profitability.

Moreover, as the adoption of new technologies is one of the primary means by which companies build and sustain their core competitiveness, amid the surge of mergers and acquisitions in the international logistics sector, firms are increasingly proactive in exploring ways to leverage cutting-edge technologies to enhance their operational capabilities—particularly by harnessing intelligent, automated, and digital solutions to integrate and optimize their business units. Consequently, the rapid increase in M&A activity among international logistics enterprises over the past two years has also spurred… The continued growth of new technology adoption across the industry in 2022.

Trend Four: “Green” logistics is gaining momentum.

In recent years, environmental and climate‑change issues have become focal points of global concern, and green and sustainable development has emerged as one of the key guiding principles for economic and social transformation worldwide. To safeguard the environment and advance sustainable human development, major countries and international organizations have engaged in multiple rounds of consultations and close cooperation, formulating and adopting a series of landmark agreements—most notably the Paris Agreement—to promote environmental protection and sustainable development on the international stage. These instruments have also become crucial references for national governments and international bodies in designing and implementing socio‑economic development plans, as well as in monitoring and steering market‑driven and societal progress.

The transportation and logistics sector is currently a major source of global carbon dioxide emissions. “Major emitters” account for approximately 21% of global carbon emissions. As noted in Roland Berger’s report, “Grounded in the Present, Oriented to the Future: Supporting China’s Transport and Logistics Sector on the Path to Low-Carbon, Green, and Sustainable Development,” in response to evolving circumstances, the international logistics industry has increasingly embraced reducing carbon emissions, environmental protection, and green development as its core strategic priorities. The International Maritime Organization has set a target to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% by 2050, relative to 2008 levels. Given the sustained efforts of the European Union, China, Japan, and other regions in advancing their dual‑carbon goals, coupled with the United States’ proactive stance in rejoining the Paris Agreement, the adaptation measures undertaken by the international logistics sector over the past two years—centered on achieving peak carbon and carbon neutrality—are expected to continue into 2022. Consequently, the pace at which the industry reduces emissions and promotes green logistics will keep accelerating.

At present, from the perspective of industry realities, major global logistics companies have not only formulated plans to reduce emissions and promote green development in recent years—actively aligning with the United Nations’ and leading economies’ policies on environmental protection and sustainable development—but have also integrated these initiatives into their broader strategies. “Green” logistics has emerged as a new competitive frontier, with companies driving carbon‑reduction efforts through sustained investment in technology and continuous business optimization, aiming to secure a leading position in the development of green and sustainable logistics and ensuring steady, long‑term success in the next wave of competition. In 2022, the international logistics industry will continue to advance along this path.

In short, the sudden COVID‑19 pandemic has profoundly reshaped the near-term landscape of the international logistics industry, prompting it to reassess its strategic direction and priorities. To meet the needs of major global economies in ensuring the security and stability of both global and local supply chains, international logistics firms have, over the past two years, continuously adjusted their operational footprints and development strategies in line with the policy frameworks of key national governments, thereby giving rise to… Goals and trends that will persist in 2022. In the short term, international logistics companies will continue to prioritize enhancing supply-chain resilience to better manage unforeseen disruptions.

Compared with the sharp market volatility of the past two years, the international logistics industry has… 2022 is likely to be marked by the twin hallmarks of “stability” and “recovery.” Yet for international logistics companies, the real challenge lies in identifying and navigating the “turbulent undercurrents” lurking beneath a relatively calm surface. Whether it’s ongoing M&A and consolidation, sustained investment in technological innovation, or efforts to reduce carbon emissions and pursue green development, these are not only defining features of the industry in 2022 but also trends that will profoundly shape its future trajectory.

(Contributed by: Institute of International Studies, Fudan University)