Viewing the broader logistics landscape through the lens of economic trends.
Release date:
2022-03-11
Author:
Jinhua Logistics
In logistics In today’s era, where “whoever controls the network controls the world,” logistics enterprises must focus on building a modern logistics network for a modern China, promptly adjust their spatial layout, and seize the substantial benefits brought by the country’s modernization.
Recently, nationwide Thirty-one provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the central government have each unveiled their 2021 GDP performance reports. Against the backdrop of China’s economy confronting triple pressures—shrinking demand, supply shocks, and weakening expectations—these results have undoubtedly brought a welcome warmth to the winter months.
Among these impressive results, two key trends demand the attention of logistics professionals: first, Dongguan has surpassed the trillion‑yuan mark. The GDP Cities Club has brought the number of Chinese cities with a GDP exceeding one trillion yuan to 24, while Yantai, Changzhou, Xuzhou, Tangshan, Dalian, Wenzhou, Kunming, and Xiamen are rapidly approaching that threshold. Meanwhile, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen continue to lead, and the central provinces have maintained the rapid growth momentum of recent years. Judging from the outlook for these cities and provinces in 2022, optimism remains as strong as ever—yet this optimism is far from blind, underpinned by robust demand and a foundation of high‑quality industrial development.
The reason logistics professionals should pay close attention to these two sets of data is simple: the trends in economic development encapsulate the overarching trajectory of both current and future logistics growth. Demand scale and A major restructuring of the spatial framework 。
First, let’s discuss the scale of the demand. From the perspective of the fundamental principles governing the development of modern logistics, logistics demand stems from two main sources: first, the growing consumer‑driven demand for everyday goods. In China, per capita… In 2021, GDP successfully surpassed the US$12,500 threshold, marking a genuine inflection point for the expansion of consumer spending. We should remain confident and avoid being unduly swayed by short-term “demand contraction.” This situation is reminiscent of the early 2000s, when China crossed the threshold for private car consumption: robust demand caught logistics providers off guard, leading to hasty responses that, while seizing opportunities presented by expanding demand, fell short of delivering satisfactory quality in development. This time, we must cultivate a modern mindset and embrace high‑quality development, making thorough preparations—through innovations in service technologies, business formats, and operational models—to support the expansion of a modernized consumer market.
Second, there is the industrial logistics demand that arises alongside increased production volumes. In recent years, the core driver of the Central Region’s sustained rapid economic growth has been high‑quality manufacturing. While we have observed the Central Region emerging as a hub for manufacturing development—characterized by simultaneous improvements in both quantity and quality—we have yet to fully decipher the underlying logistical “code.” This code lies in the fact that, amid the expansion of domestic demand spurred by a robust domestic market, the Central Region’s industrial development enjoys advantages similar to those of the coastal regions during their earlier export‑oriented phase: low product‑related logistics costs and high logistics efficiency. What logistics professionals must do is not simply replicate the logistics services that supported the coastal regions’ export‑oriented economies; rather, they should deliver modern supply‑chain logistics services aimed at industrial and logistical modernization—accelerating the coordination and integration of industrial and supply chains—and providing competitive logistics support to help China’s industries ascend to the mid‑to‑high end of global value chains, built on the foundation of mass consumption.
Now let’s take a look at the spatial structure. From the perspective of trends in modern logistics organization, networking is the fundamental direction for enhancing efficiency and reducing costs. In China, the expansion of logistics capacity at both the consumption and production ends has already revealed distinct spatial patterns—namely, a scale of trillions. The expansion in the number of cities with GDPs reaching one trillion yuan, coupled with the economic rise of provinces in the central region. For cities boasting a GDP of one trillion, logistics development has completely broken free from its previous reliance on self‑service models; driven by the dual forces of expanding consumption and production, these cities have acquired the organizational value of logistics hub nodes. The underlying rationale behind the state’s issuance of the “National Logistics Hub Layout and Construction Plan” is thus strikingly clear.
At the heart of this value lies the logistics network‑building capability anchored in hub nodes and the cultivation of logistics as an incremental industry for the city. The greater added value stems from the enhanced reach of the logistics network, which generates broader industrial spillover effects and efficiency gains, thereby enabling a trillion‑level… GDP‑driven cities exhibit greater competitiveness in industrial layout and development. Accordingly, strategically defining the direction of urban logistics will serve as both the starting point and the ultimate goal of urban economic policy, while the strategic decisions and growth trajectories of logistics enterprises will play a pivotal role in shaping their future.
For the central region, the rise of industries in its core areas presents opportunities to build a logistics network that radiates both domestically and internationally, leveraging the region’s key hub cities. This development also makes the evolution of the logistics network’s spatial structure an inevitable trend. In logistics… In today’s era, where “whoever controls the network controls the world,” logistics enterprises must focus on building a modern logistics network for a modern China, promptly adjust their spatial layout, and seize the substantial benefits brought by the country’s modernization.
(The author is the Director and Researcher at the Comprehensive Transportation Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission.)
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