Over the next 5–10 years: What development opportunities remain in the cross-border logistics sector?

At present, the cross-border e-commerce logistics industry is shifting from domestic to international markets.
Especially after the pandemic, many cross-border logistics companies have begun expanding overseas—extending not only their product and service offerings but also their teams. A growing number of firms are already establishing a foothold abroad, investing in key capabilities such as customs clearance, warehousing, last-mile delivery, and trucking infrastructure. Against this backdrop, the cross-border e‑commerce logistics sector still has substantial room for growth. To carve out a competitive edge, companies can focus on the following strategic directions.

01 Overseas warehouses will become critical infrastructure for global logistics fulfillment.

With the semi‑managed model gaining traction, overseas warehouses are poised for substantial growth in the years ahead.

On the one hand, Air cargo capacity has already peaked, and orders for dedicated freighters are booked through… After 2030, the global fleet of freighters is unlikely to see substantial growth in the short term, and air cargo rates are expected to remain elevated over the next 5 to 10 years. On the other hand, Cross-border e-commerce platforms include SHEIN, TEMU, AliExpress, and other platforms see their performance double year after year, which means the volume of parcels handled by these platforms is steadily increasing. Amidst a severe shortage of direct air‑freight capacity, the fully managed fulfillment model faces significant constraints. To ensure smooth logistics operations, Cross-border e-commerce platforms have launched a semi‑managed model, adopting… The “sea freight + overseas warehousing” model is being promoted, encouraging all merchants to adopt warehouse‑fulfillment and stock their goods in overseas warehouses. This has led many cross-border logistics companies, starting in the second half of last year, to begin building overseas fulfillment centers—particularly drop-shipping warehouses, which have become extremely popular. Even leading firms are scrambling to lease large-scale warehouses. In the years ahead, compared with the constrained full‑service fulfillment model, The semi‑managed model will become the mainstream, and both the number of overseas warehouse builds and ocean‑freight volumes will continue to rise. Meanwhile, under the influence of the semi‑managed model, the boom in building overseas warehouses is not a short‑term phenomenon; overseas warehouses will gradually become a critical infrastructure for truly achieving global logistics fulfillment in cross‑border e‑commerce and cross‑border logistics. Consequently, the overseas warehouse sector has substantial room for future growth. However, it is important to note that… Developing a successful overseas warehouse does come with certain hurdles.

Based on the current market landscape, many companies have established overseas warehouses and are handling substantial volumes with decent results. However, only those that have made significant investments in information technology and digitalization are likely to endure and scale up. Why is this the case? As overseas warehouse networks grow larger, the number of facilities increases, leading to a corresponding surge in the volume of goods to be processed—demanding extensive manpower to manage operations. Yet, as we all know, recruiting locally overseas is far more challenging than in China, with lower productivity compared to domestic hiring. At the same time, bringing workers from China is neither practical nor feasible. To address this issue, Enterprises can only enhance warehouse operational efficiency by leveraging information‑based systems and technology‑driven, intelligent application tools. Consequently, the future development trend of overseas warehouses is… “Informationization + Intelligentization,” Only by making sustained investments in information technology and intelligent systems, coupled with economies of scale, can enterprises build enduring competitive advantages and generate profitable returns, ultimately establishing robust barriers to entry in their respective industries.

02  Different sub-sectors offer distinct opportunities.

Different types of enterprises will each have distinct growth opportunities as the cross-border logistics industry evolves. The key is for companies to conduct an internal assessment, identify their core competencies and resources, and leverage these assets to pursue tailored avenues for expansion.

First, companies can secure strategic resource positioning in the warehousing and distribution stages. Due to the numerous and lengthy logistics nodes in cross-border e‑commerce, cross-border e‑commerce platforms have begun adopting a segmented procurement model, breaking down the cross-border logistics process into Segments a–d: Segment a covers the domestic leg, i.e., the stage before the goods are loaded onto the aircraft; segment b is international trunk‑line transportation, carried out by sea or air to move cargo from port to port; segment c involves customs clearance and terminal operations once the goods arrive at a foreign port or terminal; and segment d is last‑mile delivery. In the process of segmented procurement, different cross‑border logistics providers can leverage their own resources to focus on specific links in the value chain, securing strategic positions at each stage—customs, warehousing, and last‑mile delivery. For example, some companies with port‑side resources may concentrate on port operations; others with aircraft assets or leasing capabilities may prioritize trunk‑line capacity; still others with proprietary hubs or customs‑clearance licenses may specialize in customs clearance; and those building out last‑mile delivery networks may zero in on final‑stage distribution. Today, many U.S.-style “Three通One达” players are Chinese firms. Therefore, cross‑border logistics enterprises must clearly define their positioning, aligning it with their core competencies, key resources, and team capabilities to pursue strategic focus—concentrating on their most critical strengths and assets—and then strategically stake their claims at pivotal nodes along the cross‑border logistics chain, committing sustained investment and deepening their expertise.

Secondly, companies can deepen their expertise in various vertical segments and build a distinctive brand of their own. For example, some cross-border logistics companies choose to focus on a single country and invest deeply in that market. For instance, Jiayou International specializes in the Canadian market, while Anjun Logistics focuses on the Brazilian market. iMile focuses on markets such as the Middle East, and these companies have already established strong brand recognition within their respective niche segments. As a result, when people think of a particular country, they immediately associate it with that company, creating a highly distinctive brand identity. Moreover, once a brand has gained traction in a given market, virtually all cross‑border logistics providers handling shipments to that country will route them through that specialized carrier. Beyond concentrating on specific countries, cross‑border logistics firms can also specialize in particular product categories. For example, some companies focus on exporting new‑energy products, which requires a certain level of technical expertise; others specialize in e‑cigarette exports, offering customized cross‑border logistics solutions to numerous manufacturers. By anchoring themselves around a core node—whether it’s a specific country, product category, or industry—cross‑border logistics providers must deepen and refine their offerings after securing strategic resource positioning, thereby building competitive barriers and cultivating robust brand equity within their chosen verticals.

Finally, in the long run, the future Over the next 5 to 10 years, the cross-border logistics sector will continue to enjoy a substantial period of growth and opportunity. The development stages of cross-border e‑commerce and cross-border logistics vary from country to country. While Europe and North America have reached a more mature phase, they still harbor region‑specific opportunities. By contrast, countries in South America, South Asia, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe lag behind China in infrastructure, leaving many areas亟需 improvement. These gaps present fertile ground for cross‑border logistics firms to tap into; those who move first will be best positioned to seize the initiative. Looking ahead, as long as cross‑border logistics companies define their strategic positioning, secure key resources, and focus their growth strategies, while continuously strengthening their capabilities and building robust brands, they will each carve out their own space for expansion. In the evolving landscape of the cross‑border logistics sector, not every player needs to go public, but every company can find its unique niche and secure a foothold amid the broader wave of industry growth, enabling sustained development.