Authoritative Release: China’s Logistics Recovery Trajectory in the First Half of 2021!

2020 The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 dealt a severe blow to the macroeconomy and logistics operations. In response, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council assessed the situation carefully, implemented epidemic prevention and control measures, and adopted a range of policies to restore production and daily life. 2021 In the first half of the year, logistics operations followed a steady recovery trajectory, with key aggregate indicators surpassing pre-pandemic levels. Total social logistics demand stabilized, and the total value of social logistics in the first half of the year… 150.9 Trillions of yuan, comparable growth 15.7% Among them, the stabilizing role of industrial and residential consumption in logistics demand continued to strengthen, import logistics volumes maintained their upward momentum, and the scale of the logistics market kept expanding.

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, epidemic prevention and control will remain normalized, further highlighting the logistics sector’s role in ensuring supply chains, while its foundational and strategic functions continue to strengthen. On the basis of last year’s baseline, full-year logistics growth… “Higher in the front, lower in the back,” with preliminary estimates projecting that the total social logistics volume will grow by approximately… for the full year. 9-10% 。

I. Basic Characteristics of Logistics Operations

(1) Industrial and consumer demand are driving a recovery in overall logistics demand.

In terms of both total volume and growth rate, the figures are all higher than pre-pandemic levels. 2019 Year-on-year. In the first half of the year, the total social logistics volume nationwide… 150.9 Trillions of yuan, calculated at comparable prices, increased year on year by 15.7% (For the same period last year was -0.5% ), average growth over two years 7.3% , accelerating compared to the two-year average growth rate in the first quarter. 0.1 percentage points.

By sector, logistics demand related to consumer spending has grown rapidly; industrial goods logistics demand has expanded beyond expectations, with the nominal growth rate of total industrial goods logistics exceeding… 20% , excluding price effects, comparable growth 15.9% , industrial goods logistics demand and consumer goods logistics demand are driving the growth of total social logistics volume. 14.8% , the growth contribution rate reached 94.4% ; At current prices, demand for import logistics is growing rapidly, but once price effects are stripped out, the growth in physical logistics volume is slowing; meanwhile, the growth rate of logistics demand for recyclable resources—reflecting reverse logistics—has surpassed 50%。

(II) With both domestic and external demand driving growth, logistics demand for industrial goods is expanding rapidly.

In the first half of the year, the total volume of industrial goods logistics increased year-on-year. 15.9% (Down in the first half of last year) 1.3% ), the two-year average growth rate is 7% , accelerating compared to the first quarter 0.2 percentage points, with the total value of industrial goods logistics increasing that month. 8.3% , maintaining a relatively rapid growth rate. The robust expansion in the total volume of industrial goods logistics is primarily driven by the recovery of domestic demand and surging international demand.

Domestically, in the first half of the year, the manufacturing sector continued to recover steadily, with manufacturing… PMI The mean is 51.1% , keep it at 50% Above, manufacturing logistics demand increased year over year. 17.1% , the two-year average growth rate is 7.5% In the manufacturing sector, the logistics demand of equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, consumer goods, and the raw materials industry grew at average annual rates of … over the past two years, respectively. 11%、13%、5% and 6% , the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, a key sector, has posted an average two-year growth rate of 14.9% , the output of industrial robots, integrated circuits, and microcomputer equipment increased significantly, up year-on-year by 30-60% , the new growth momentum effect is evident.

Overseas, following a new wave of COVID‑19 outbreaks in emerging economies, risks of supply chain disruptions have intensified. In regions such as Southeast Asia and South Asia, capacity utilization is unlikely to rebound quickly, thereby amplifying China’s industrial‑chain advantages and boosting exports of medical and epidemic‑prevention products, electrical machinery, durable consumer goods, and specialized equipment. Taking medical and epidemic‑prevention products as an example, in the first half of the year, the export delivery value of pharmaceutical manufacturing and chemical fiber manufacturing increased year on year. 53.5% and 51.8% , vaccine export volume increased year-on-year 18.4 times; overseas orders for consumer goods have surged, with the export value of apparel, furniture, sporting goods, and household appliances increasing year-on-year in the first half of the year. 29.5% 、 51.3% 、 83.1% and 35.8% 。

(3) Commodity prices have risen sharply, while the price‑adjusted growth in total import logistics value has slowed.

Since last year, commodity prices have risen sharply, with increases in upstream costs—such as iron ore, glass, and chemical raw materials—being passed on to intermediate goods and final‑stage manufacturing. Despite policy measures aimed at curbing excessively rapid price hikes, average commodity prices remained elevated in the first half of the year; taking iron ore as an example, 7 Month 1-24 Qingdao Port, Japan 61.5% Average price of Australian iron ore 1418.4 Yuan / tons, for three consecutive months in 1400 Above yuan, the average price of iron ore in the first seven months rose by as much as 60.6% . As imported bulk commodities account for a significant share, the total value of China’s import logistics in the first half of the year was affected by rising prices. 8.2 Trillions of yuan, at current prices, growth 26% , excluding price factors, the comparable growth of total import logistics volume is only 3.5% , growth among major commodity categories has diverged, with imports of iron ore and natural gas increasing. 2.6% and 23.8% , but coal imports have declined 19.7% In addition, demand for consumer‑goods import logistics remains strong, with imports of grain and meat increasing. 43.1% and 7% Meanwhile, as the base effect strengthens, month-on-month year-on-year growth in import logistics has continued to decelerate.

(4) The pandemic has reshaped consumer habits, and demand for everyday logistics continues to grow.

The pandemic has profoundly reshaped consumer habits and promotional dynamics: demand for traditional categories like food, apparel, and household goods has slowed, while health‑related spending—particularly in healthcare—has surged. Manufacturers have normalized promotional activities, leading to a more gradual peak during the seasonal high‑demand period. Meanwhile, big data, 5G The deep integration of artificial intelligence with consumer scenarios has led to a sharp increase in work-from-home lifestyles, accelerating the recovery of residents’ online consumption demand. In the first half of the year, the total value of goods logistics for both enterprises and households rose year-on-year. 17.8% , average growth over two years 13.9% , far exceeding the growth rate of total social logistics. In the first half of the year, the cumulative growth of online retail sales of physical goods was 18.7% , average growth over two years 16.5% , accelerating compared to the first quarter 1.1 percentage points; the share of online retail sales of physical goods in total retail sales of consumer goods was 23.7% , up from the first quarter 1.8 percentage points. In the first half of the year, the average values of the total business volume index and the rural business volume index in the e‑commerce logistics operations index were 127.4 Point and 125.1 The data indicate that both the overall e‑commerce logistics demand and the rural logistics order volume have grown by more than… 25%。

(5) The logistics market continues to expand, with the industry remaining in a period of robust growth.

In the first half of the year, the logistics industry’s total revenue reached 5.7 Trillions of yuan, up year-on-year 22.8% , average growth over two years 9.3% , with a growth rate higher than 2019 In the same period, logistics supply continued to improve, and the logistics market remained in a recovery phase. From the perspective of growth drivers, new business models and emerging growth engines are performing well; e‑commerce express delivery revenue continues to expand at a faster pace than traditional sectors such as transportation, warehousing, and trade, thereby boosting overall revenue growth in the logistics industry. 2 percentage points; in terms of composition, the transportation sector remains the primary driver, with revenue from rail and road transport accounting for nearly 70 percent of the logistics industry’s total revenue.

In the first half of the year, the logistics industry’s prosperity index averaged 54.5% , situated in the higher end of the business cycle, with the second quarter being 55.9% This represents a marked rebound compared with the first quarter, while the sub‑indices indicate that the logistics sector is becoming more balanced: the new orders index and the business volume index are closely aligned, and enterprises of all sizes—large, medium, small, and micro—are operating in relatively robust conditions, with their trends broadly converging.

China Logistics Prosperity Index ( LPI )

(6) Overseas logistics service prices have surged, while road transport costs have risen steadily.

In the first half of the year, logistics service prices exhibited a pronounced pattern of weak domestic demand and strong international demand. In the maritime shipping market, pandemic-related reductions in global shipping capacity and persistent port congestion further constrained the release of available capacity; it is estimated that the proportion of vessels waiting at ports has… 10% Around. Prices on major routes have remained firm, with the index posting a substantial increase since last year; in the first half of the year, the average value of China’s Export Container Freight Index was… 1961.0 Point, up year over year 133.7% , the average value of China’s coastal bulk freight rate index for the first half of the year 1257.35 Point, up year over year 29.0% , the Baltic Dry Index for the first half of the year BDI Mean 2257.2 Point, year-over-year growth 2.29 As the imbalance between supply and demand in the shipping market has rippled through to the China–Europe Railway Express, the result has been rising volumes and higher prices; in the first half of this year, a total of… trains were operated. 7323 Column, year-over-year growth 43% ; transporting goods 70.1 Ten thousand TEUs, up year on year 52% Domestic road transport market demand has expanded, leading to an improvement in the supply-demand balance and a steady rise in freight rates. China’s road logistics freight rate index stood at … in the first quarter and … in the second quarter. 99.8 Point and 100.17 Point, average for the first half of the year 100.02 Points, an increase compared to the same period last year. 1.8% 。

(7) Continuously advancing policy implementation, with the business environment steadily improving.

The business environment is a vital safeguard for enterprises, and all departments are steadily advancing the implementation of relevant policies. Four departments have launched a special campaign to address issues related to road height‑ and width‑restriction facilities and inspection checkpoints. Meanwhile, eighteen departments are carrying out a targeted initiative to facilitate cross‑border trade, continuously streamlining procedures, reducing costs, and enhancing efficiency, while promoting end‑to‑end electronic customs clearance across multiple agencies. “One vessel, multiple certificates, handled in a single visit,” this year. 5 The average nationwide import clearance time is 38.93 Hours, the overall customs clearance time for exports is 2.12 hours, respectively compared to 2017 Annual compression 60.03% and 82.74% The Ministry of Public Security is advancing the optimization and improvement of traffic management for urban delivery trucks. Several key measures deserve attention: first, refining the electronic permit management system, 4 A city is piloting an electronic travel pass, with the pilot program set to expand in the second half of the year. 2022 First, a nationwide rollout of the annual plan; second, a review and adjustment of policies restricting or prohibiting truck access, with efforts to encourage local authorities to establish positive feedback mechanisms; third, advancing the implementation of通行 permissions for logistics vehicles powered by new energy and those used in cold-chain operations. In the near term, the Ministry of Transport also plans to introduce measures to improve the working conditions of freight drivers—by standardizing road enforcement, regulating platform monopolies in accordance with the law, streamlining channels for complaints and reports, and strengthening the social security system—thereby bolstering the protection of truck drivers’ rights and interests.

II. Issues of Concern

In the post‑pandemic era, risks and opportunities coexist; yet what matters most is identifying and validating those risks, while enhancing our capacity for risk forecasting and strategic adaptation. In the second half of the year, key areas of focus include: the drag on recovery from pandemic‑related uncertainties; the waning of the external economic rebound, which weakens the export‑substitution effect; the need to consolidate the foundations of domestic demand; rising storage‑related costs stemming from sluggish inventory turnover; and persistently subdued corporate profitability coupled with insufficient growth momentum. Overall, externally, the primary concern remains the impact of the pandemic, while domestically, attention should be directed toward shifts in logistics demand, micro‑level economic vitality, and bottlenecks in inventory turnover.

(1) Changes in internal and external conditions affecting logistics demand

First, demand for manufacturing export logistics has weakened. While the global economy is unlikely to remain mired in stagnation, some countries are implementing fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate growth, increasing vaccination rates, lifting lockdowns and social restrictions, and striving to boost supply amid a challenging recovery. As a result, the substitution effect of external demand on manufacturing exports may diminish in the second half of the year, exerting a certain downward pressure on manufacturing‑related logistics demand. Second, the pandemic is exacerbating the instability of the recovery. Globally, outbreaks in Europe, the United States, and South Asia continue to spread, leading to persistent congestion at freight yards, ports, and cross‑border hubs. Shortages of cargo, containers, and booking capacity could persist into the fourth quarter, significantly heightening volatility in international trade and in industrial and supply chains. Third, domestic consumption has yet to return fully to pre‑pandemic levels. Sporadic local outbreaks have disrupted the recovery of sectors such as catering, tourism, accommodation, and conventions and exhibitions, making it difficult for consumer spending to rebound to its pre‑crisis trajectory. On the demand side, the recovery of industrial production remains weaker than that of output; in the first half of the year, manufacturing… PMI The average value of the new orders index is 52% , lower than the manufacturing sector PMI Production Index 0.7 percentage points.

(2) Sluggish social turnover raises concerns about rising inventory levels.

In the first half of the year, total social logistics costs increased year-on-year. 20.1% , with an average annual growth rate of two years 7.4% , the two-year average growth rate is slightly higher than 2019 Annual average level. Total social logistics costs and GDP The ratio is 14.7% , compared with the first quarter of this year, 2019 High in the first half of the year 0.1 percentage points, and overall logistics operating costs remained stable.

The real economy has driven a rapid increase in transportation costs. Since the second quarter of last year, production has broadly accelerated, and the manufacturing sector… PMI Continued recovery has shifted the drivers of economic growth toward the secondary sector, thereby boosting demand for physical‑goods transportation; in the first half of the year, freight volume increased year over year. 24.6% , average growth over two years 7.2% , transportation costs increased year over year 24.9% , average growth over two years 9.5% Rail, road, and waterway transport maintained relatively rapid growth, with growth rates at… 20% Left and right.

Costs in the storage stage have risen, with increases in capital‑occupation costs and warehousing expenses. 20% Around this level. Recurring outbreaks, volatile high prices for bulk commodities, and uncertain market expectations have all contributed to heightened supply-chain instability, resulting in overall inefficiencies in the storage and warehousing stages. 5 At the end of the month, the inventory turnover days for finished goods of industrial enterprises above designated size were 17.8 Heaven, the average accounts receivable collection period is 52.5 Temperatures are higher than in previous years. Inventory ratios have risen, while working capital turnover, sales cycles, and payment terms have all lengthened, leading to a greater proportion of funds tied up. At the same time, substantial hedging demand persists, collectively driving up storage‑related costs. Under current conditions, the consequence of rising inventories is increased pressure on financing costs and higher levels of social logistics expenses, along with an elevated risk of supply‑chain disruptions at both upstream and downstream stages—issues that warrant particular attention.

(3) Corporate micro-level profitability has not improved significantly.

Competition in the logistics industry is intensifying, with logistics firms generally wielding limited bargaining power vis-à-vis upstream suppliers. Meanwhile, operating costs continue to rise, and corporate profitability has shown no significant improvement. Looking at the sub‑indices of the Logistics Prosperity Index, the main business cost index has consistently exceeded the main business profit index. 2021 year 1-6 The gap between the main business cost index and the main business profit index has widened further, reflecting that rising costs are squeezing profit margins. According to surveys of key enterprises, in the first and second quarters of this year, their costs increased by… respectively. 22.3% and 30% , while the profit margins on revenue are all below 5% , significantly lower than that of industrial enterprises 8% The level.

(4) Fundamental Challenges in Logistics Operations

In the current landscape of logistics operations and development, inconsistencies and lack of coordination persist. Macro‑level demand is stabilizing, while micro‑level corporate profitability is weakening; high efficiency at individual links coexists with low overall logistics efficiency; internal pricing for logistics services remains relatively stable, yet external costs are soaring; traditional logistics capacity is ample, yet high‑end supply‑chain logistics services remain in short supply. Meanwhile, progress on addressing fundamental issues—such as land availability, traffic access, and tax and fee burdens—has been slow, while costs related to human resources, environmental protection and low‑carbon initiatives, and epidemic prevention and control have risen markedly. These challenges continue to constrain the steady and healthy development of the logistics sector.

III. Full-Year Forecast and Policy Recommendations

Looking ahead to the second half of the year, both international and domestic economic cycles will continue to open up, with personnel exchanges and cross-border activities becoming increasingly frequent. However, pandemic-related risks and bottlenecks in logistics must not be overlooked; congestion at overseas ports and other key nodes is unlikely to ease significantly in the short term, and epidemic prevention and control will remain a routine priority. Consequently, the role of logistics as a reliable support system will become even more prominent, with its foundational and strategic significance continuing to strengthen. On the basis of last year’s baseline, annual logistics growth… “Higher in the front, lower in the back”—in the third and fourth quarters, the growth rates of logistics demand, logistics revenue, and business scale are expected to moderate. Preliminary estimates project that the total social logistics volume will grow by approximately… for the full year. 9-10% 。

In the second half of the year, the continued recovery of the logistics sector will require support on several fronts: increased investment, policy incentives, supply-chain development, and demand‑stimulating measures.

First, we will increase investment in logistics infrastructure. We will continue to ramp up funding for upgrading and expanding road, rail, waterway, port, and air transport networks, while addressing critical bottlenecks in agricultural logistics, national logistics hubs, and cold-chain logistics. We will advance the development of urban–rural delivery systems and ensure seamless integration with logistics hubs, accelerate the deployment of digital infrastructure in the logistics sector, and establish a fund to guide enterprises in digitally transforming and intelligently upgrading their logistics operations, thereby meeting demand with high‑quality logistics services. At the same time, we will fully mobilize private investment by prioritizing outreach on pilot real estate investment trust projects in the infrastructure sector, thereby invigorating private capital participation.

Second, we will simultaneously advance policy incentives and market corrections to optimize the business environment. On the one hand, we will continue to implement policies and initiatives such as deep integration between the manufacturing and service sectors, supply-chain pilot programs, high-quality logistics development, the convergence of transportation and logistics, multimodal transport, cold-chain logistics, and the construction of rural logistics networks. We will focus on addressing pressing issues related to road access, land use, taxes and fees, and annual inspections and reviews, thereby reducing the operational burden on enterprises and enhancing their awareness of and engagement with relevant policies. On the other hand, we will promptly adjust course in response to industry trends, establish a performance‑evaluation system for urban logistics, strengthen both government and corporate integrity, prioritize tackling arbitrary fines and ad hoc inspections, standardize administrative law enforcement, and regulate the operations of online freight‑transport platforms in a scientifically sound manner. We will also promote the intensive development of the transport market, increase scrutiny of operator concentrations and capital financing in the logistics sector, and place greater emphasis on information security in new‑type logistics infrastructure.

Third, we must enhance the efficiency of industrial and supply chains. At present, societal circulation remains sluggish, with substantial logistics costs tied up in non‑value‑adding activities, thereby increasing cost burdens across the upstream and downstream segments of the supply chain. We need to move beyond the mindset of cutting costs at a single link and instead foster deeper integration within the manufacturing sector and between upstream and downstream firms, thereby improving supply‑chain logistics efficiency and reducing costs across the entire industry value chain.

Fourth, further stimulate demand. Although consumer‑related logistics accounts for only a modest share overall, end‑user demand exerts a multiplier effect on the logistics needs of intermediate and primary products. With rising household incomes and the continued expansion of logistics networks, e‑commerce‑driven logistics consumption in both urban and rural areas still has ample room for growth. Industrial logistics, by contrast, accounts for 90 percent of total demand; to support high‑quality industrial development and enhance productivity and efficiency, we must unleash industrial logistics demand through high‑quality supply, while integrating and optimizing supply‑chain resources across spatial planning, logistics infrastructure, raw‑material procurement, and product distribution.