In-depth Analysis of the “2022 China Road Transport Capacity Development Data White Paper”

Over the past decade, China’s logistics industry has experienced rapid growth, with the freight‑carrying capacity market undergoing continuous transformation and innovation. Yunlian Research takes uncovering trends in the development of China’s road‑transport capacity as its core mission, leveraging its expert research capabilities, extensive network of resources, and on‑the‑ground field visits. By transforming the precise, real‑world operational data it gathers into objective, logically sound, and systematic analyses and assessments, it has… On August 3, 2022, the “2022 China Road Transport Capacity Development Data White Paper” was officially released to the public.
This article presents… An analysis of the four key highlights from the 2022 China Road Transport Capacity Development White Paper.

Increased cargo volumes and a growing vehicle fleet,

Road freight is generally trending positively.

In 2021, China’s epidemic situation improved significantly, with national freight volume increasing by 12.3% to reach 53 billion tons. Road freight volume rose by 14.2%, hitting 39.1 billion tons. In terms of transportation costs, the total nationwide transport expenditure amounted to 9 trillion yuan, with road freight accounting for over 7 trillion yuan—representing 78% of the total. From this, it is evident that… Road transport remains the largest mode of transportation in the country.
In terms of vehicles, according to official statistics, the nationwide registered fleet of civilian freight trucks has reached 32.58 million vehicles, up 7% year on year, have maintained steady growth for seven consecutive years; the nationwide fleet of commercial vehicles stands at 11.73 million, a 6% increase over the previous year. Both registered vehicles and those holding operating permits have seen overall stable growth in their respective totals.
 

Comparing with historical data reveals that the share of truck models sold has undergone a significant shift.
In 2021, total truck sales reached 4.29 million units, with heavy-duty trucks accounting for 1.40 million units, or 32.5% of the market—up 8.9 percentage points from 23.6% in 2016. Meanwhile, medium-duty and light-duty trucks accounted for 4.2% and 14.1% of sales, respectively, down 3.2 and 5.4 percentage points from 2016.
From the perspective of the tonnage of commercial vehicles, From 2012 to 2022, the average vehicle tonnage increased from 6.4 tons to 14.6 tons, more than doubling. Judging by this trend, the shift toward larger vehicles remains quite pronounced.
Light-duty and heavy-duty trucks have become the two extremes in today’s vehicle‑segment development. The S‑series is a high‑efficiency heavy-duty truck, ideal for fleets that prioritize high payload capacity, long service life, and exceptional reliability. The N‑series, on the other hand, is a versatile light‑duty truck; in an increasingly fragmented and diversified consumer landscape, demand for light trucks in the urban delivery market continues to grow.

5.9 million individual drivers, 3,500 large fleets,

Capacity organization is accelerating.

According to statistics from the Ministry of Transport, the total number of road transport operators nationwide is 3.2387 million households; after excluding certain affiliated companies, the total number of actual fleet operators stands at 317,000. Among them, fleets with 50 or more vehicles number 3,507, while individual operators account for 5.90 million.
At present, the primary carriers in China are still individual drivers. However, with the increasing concentration of freight volumes in recent years and the rapid growth of online freight platforms and company‑owned fleets, the trend toward organized capacity management is accelerating.

Based on a combination of registration data and field‑survey data, the total number of heavy trucks currently in operation nationwide is 8.14 million vehicles. Based on fleet size, fleets can be categorized into six types: ultra-large fleets (over 1,000 vehicles), national large fleets (201–1,000 vehicles), regional large fleets (21–200 vehicles), regional medium-sized fleets (11–50 vehicles), regional small fleets (2–10 vehicles), and individual plus affiliated fleets.
According to statistics from the Capacity Research Center of the Transportation Union Research Institute, fleet size is at There are 3,507 fleets with 50 or more vehicles, collectively accounting for 760,000 vehicles, or 9.3% of the total operating fleet. Among these, 135 fleets have more than 1,000 vehicles (ultra-large fleets); 1,064 fleets range from 200 to 1,000 vehicles (national large fleets); and 2,241 fleets comprise 50 to 200 vehicles (regional large fleets).
The fleet size is in Fleets ranging from 2 to 50 vehicles total 314,000, with a combined fleet size of 1.17 million vehicles, accounting for 18.2% of the market. Among these, 38,000 fleets comprise 10 to 50 vehicles (medium-sized regional fleets), while 275,000 fleets consist of 2 to 10 vehicles (small regional fleets).
The total number of vehicles owned by individual drivers and those registered under affiliated companies. 5.9 million vehicles, accounting for 72.5% of the total. Individual drivers are the primary target of network freight‑platform integration. According to the data, by the end of 2021, a total of 1,968 network freight platforms (including branch offices) had been registered nationwide, aggregating 3.6 million units of fragmented transport capacity.

Three major categories, twelve subcategories,

The landscape of the transportation capacity industry is gradually becoming clearer.

Due to the diversity of domestic road‑transport scenarios, fleet service standards, transport modes, and vehicle types vary significantly across different contexts. By integrating two dimensions—cargo sources and asset ownership—we can categorize the myriad capacity‑supply scenarios into three broad classes: hybrid, semi‑independent, and independent. Each of these major categories further comprises four sub‑categories (though some scenarios are too small to be fully depicted in the diagram), resulting in a total of twelve distinct sub‑categories.

Overall, as supply becomes more concentrated, major freight‑capacity segments are shifting from hybrid models to standalone ones.  
The so-called “Independent‑type markets” refer to situations where “specialized assets” serve “specific use cases.” This market is characterized by its large scale, high concentration of supply sources, strong specialization of transport assets, high barriers to entry, and relatively high logistics gross margins. Representative segments include hazardous chemicals, passenger-car transportation, container‑truck operations, heavy‑cargo transport, and two‑sided express delivery services.
Vehicle models used in these scenarios /Truck bodies are highly specialized and typically serve only specific transport applications. Common examples include tank trucks for hazardous materials, center-axle car carriers, container‑equipped semi‑trailers, heavy‑duty flatbeds for oversized cargo, and four‑axle delivery vehicles with high decks. The unique nature of these transport scenarios inherently renders the associated assets dedicated to particular uses, ultimately giving rise to distinct application contexts.

Representative enterprises in each independent scenario include, for example, the leading company in the hazardous chemicals sector. — Milkwai reported 2021 revenue of RMB 8.645 billion, operates over 600 hazardous‑chemical transport vehicles, and currently has a market capitalization of RMB 23.4 billion.
Leading enterprise in car transportation — Changjiu Group reported 2021 revenue of RMB 4.487 billion, operates over 2,400 center-axle vehicles, and currently has a market capitalization of RMB 4.494 billion;
Leading enterprise in heavy‑haul transportation —China Railway Special Freight: In 2021, it reported revenue of RMB 8.844 billion, operates a fleet of over 2,000 heavy‑cargo wagons, and currently has a market capitalization of RMB 21.378 billion.
Leading express delivery company — ZTO Express reported 2021 revenue of RMB 30.406 billion, operates over 10,000 delivery vehicles, and currently has a market capitalization of RMB 145.279 billion.
Representative enterprise of container trucks — Yan’gang Mingzhu reported revenue of RMB 117 million in 2021, operates a fleet of over 200 container‑handling trucks, and has a market capitalization of RMB 349 million.
From the perspective of each company’s market capitalization, a range of competitive factors—such as market share, specialized expertise, profitability, asset specificity, and barriers to entry—serve as powerful levers for boosting their valuations.

Real-world testing across four major scenarios: when evaluating costs, it’s essential to consider benefits as well.
To validate the cost structure and economic returns of trunk‑line capacity across various operational scenarios, we conducted field measurements for four major trunk‑line operating contexts—express and fast‑freight delivery, full‑truckload LTL, bulk steel transportation, and ad hoc charter capacity—and performed a thorough verification and analysis of the test results.  

Especially with regard to large‑ticket LTL, which has With a market size of 1.2 trillion yuan and a sub‑segment boasting a capacity of 1.1 million vehicles, only rigorous, empirically validated testing can ensure the authenticity and reasonableness of the results.
To this end, the Yunlian Research Institute, in collaboration with FAW Jiefang, has established a dedicated road‑test project team for the large‑ticket LTL trunk‑line scenario. FAW Jiefang is providing three Jiefang Yingtu vehicles as test platforms, employing… 1:4 typical ratio of heavy to light loads on dedicated trunk-line routes, with vehicles fully loaded at 49 tons; departed Beijing on May 7 and returned to the point of departure on June 11, covering a total distance of 20,192 kilometers over 36 days.

During the process, detailed records were kept of mileage, average speed, fuel consumption, fuel costs, tolls, tire expenses, maintenance fees, driver wages, urea costs, and other relevant expenses at each key point along the route.  
On the route, the Yunlian Research Institute has carefully selected Fourteen popular trunk‑line routes in the LTL market were subjected to full‑load, real‑world road tests. The test scenarios spanned the four major regions—east, west, south, and north—and covered key distance brackets, including 600–800 km, 800–1,000 km, 1,000–1,500 km, and over 1,500 km.
Furthermore, leveraging the national heavy-truck capacity big data provided by the Zhonghuan Satellite Capacity Data Platform, we conducted a comparative analysis of the trunk‑line capacity cost structure in the full‑truckload and less‑than‑truckload (LTL) scenarios, ensuring the data’s authenticity and reasonableness.
Ultimately, the measured per-kilometer cost for large-parcel LTL trunk-line transportation is RMB 6.29 per kilometer. Specifically, the per-kilometer costs for the seven major expense categories are as follows: fuel RMB 2.38/km, road and bridge tolls RMB 2.25/km, driver wages RMB 1.10/km, depreciation (tractor unit and trailer) RMB 0.37/km, maintenance and repairs RMB 0.04/km (no repairs required for new vehicles), tires RMB 0.07/km, and other expenses (insurance, annual inspections, fines, urea, etc.) RMB 0.08/km.
However, for the team, the most important factor is not cost but revenue. TVO: Total value of Ownership). In other words, it is the total profit a vehicle generates from the time of purchase until it is sold as a used car.