Consumer‑side traffic dividends have peaked, and purchasing power is declining.

1. Overseas epidemic situation “ Lying flat ” , the online traffic dividend has peaked.

At present, Europe and the United States, along with several countries in Southeast Asia, have adopted measures such as large-scale vaccination and effective pharmacological treatments to control the COVID-19 pandemic. The “lying flat” approach no longer relies on strict lockdowns, instead opting for a gradual easing of restrictions.

As is well known, over the past two years, the industry‑wide benefits enjoyed by export trade, cross‑border e‑commerce, and cross‑border logistics have essentially stemmed from the shift of pre‑pandemic offline traffic to online channels during the pandemic.

Accordingly, thanks to the easing of pandemic control measures abroad, offline consumption scenarios are gradually resuming, while the online traffic dividend is steadily fading, and the cross-border e‑commerce sector… The “pandemic dividend” is also gradually reaching a phased peak.

Against this backdrop, Overall traffic on mainstream e-commerce platforms is trending downward, and the cost of acquiring traffic for online sellers is steadily rising. As sales fall short of expectations and orders dwindle, sellers are adopting more cautious inventory‑management strategies.

Taking the Amazon platform as an example, according to… According to Marketplace Pulse data, by the end of 2021, Amazon advertising CPC had risen from $0.93 at the start of the year to $1.33, a 43% increase. Meanwhile, despite this surge in ad costs, the average conversion rate remained steady at 12%–13%, showing no improvement.

For sellers, the cost of acquiring traffic is steadily rising, yet revenue and expenses are not increasing in direct proportion. Therefore, whether it is… Whether it’s FBA, dedicated-line small parcels, or overseas warehousing, all cross-border e‑commerce logistics channels are currently grappling with a common challenge: stock shortages!

2. The era of handouts is over, and consumer purchasing power has declined.

Although the benefits of online traffic are peaking, consumers overseas still have a strong appetite for spending.

We believe that, During the pandemic, e‑commerce growth was driven in part by consumer demand fueled by increased traffic, and in part by fiscal and monetary stimulus measures adopted in certain overseas markets, particularly in the United States.

For example, during the Trump era, In March 2020, the United States unveiled a fiscal stimulus package totaling approximately $2 trillion to prevent the U.S. economy from falling into a deep recession amid the pandemic—making it the largest fiscal stimulus in U.S. history. During the Biden administration, a new round of economic relief measures worth $1.9 trillion was enacted.

Every government When “money‑spending” economic stimulus measures are introduced, consumers’ appetite for spending tends to surge. Over the past two years, even as port congestion in the United States has remained unresolved, American households have continued to maintain robust consumption.

And now, something like this direct… Fiscal and monetary stimulus policies involving “cash handouts” are being gradually scaled back, or even phased out, thereby exerting a certain degree of impact on overseas consumers’ spending motivations, as well as their willingness and ability to purchase.

In April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest data showing that the U.S. CPI rose 8.5% year-on-year in March, marking the fastest pace since December 1981—the highest level in more than four decades. Year-on-year CPI growth has now exceeded 6% for the sixth consecutive month.

Among them, the core The CPI, excluding prices of seasonally and supply‑driven items such as food and energy, rose 0.3% month over month, marking the largest increase in 40 years.

This indicates that, Inflation in the United States remains stubbornly high.

During periods of inflation, the most obvious sensation is “Money is losing its value,” which will directly increase financial pressure on U.S. consumers and make them more price‑sensitive.

3. Affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, consumers are adopting a cautious approach.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has driven up global prices for crude oil, food, minerals, and other bulk commodities, which in turn has pushed up the costs of essential goods and transportation logistics, thereby introducing greater uncertainty into the post-pandemic recovery of the world economy.

In April, the World Trade Organization’s annual global trade forecast report indicated that the Russia-Ukraine conflict would have a negative impact on the recovery of world trade.

Affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, In 2022, global merchandise trade is expected to grow by 3.0%, a slower pace than the previously forecast 4.7%; in 2023, growth is projected at 3.4%.

According to simulations and forecasts by WTO economists, In 2022, the global economy is projected to grow by 2.8% at market exchange rates, a decline of 1.3 percentage points from the previous forecast of 4.1%.

In 2023, global economic growth is expected to rebound to 3.2%, approaching the average growth rate of 3.0% observed from 2010 to 2019.

Meanwhile, amid the uncertainty of economic recovery, consumers in most countries worldwide tend to lack confidence in future economic prospects, leading them to adopt a more conservative consumption strategy.

Consumption demand and purchasing power will only increase when consumers have confidence in their own income prospects and in the country’s economic development.

4. With the resumption of work and production in Southeast Asia, trade orders are shifting.

If online consumption is insufficient, will consumers all shift to offline shopping scenarios, thereby… Looking to source for B2B bulk trade? Especially given that China is the world’s largest exporting nation, in theory, as cross-border e‑commerce B2C orders decline, offline B2B orders should see a corresponding increase.

However, judging from the current situation across the logistics sector, traditional trade has not seen much growth in cargo volumes and has even experienced a decline.

Over the past two years, production disruptions and supply-chain bottlenecks caused by the pandemic have presented a significant opportunity for China’s foreign trade, leading to a surge in export orders. A substantial portion of this increase stems from order shifts originating in Southeast Asian countries.

Today, neighboring countries such as those in Southeast Asia and ASEAN have already begun to gradually resume work and production. For instance, Vietnam is currently experiencing strong momentum in its foreign trade.

Since Following the resumption of international travel in mid-March, Vietnam’s total trade in goods reached US$66.73 billion, up 36.8% month-on-month. Exports amounted to US$34.06 billion, an increase of 45.5%, while imports totaled US$32.67 billion, up 28.7%. In addition, Vietnam held a series of international trade fairs in March.

By contrast, in China, it will still take some time before pandemic restrictions are lifted or border controls are relaxed.

The resumption of work and production in Southeast Asian countries will redirect orders that had previously been placed with China back to the region, leading to a temporary decline and adjustment in China’s overall export figures, foreign trade data, and cross-border e‑commerce metrics.

In the cross-border logistics sector, this phenomenon manifests as stagnant pricing in the European and U.S. markets, while freight rates to Southeast Asia are instead on the rise.

Recently, cargo shipments to Southeast Asia have remained relatively stable. In North China, ocean freight rates on routes to Southeast Asia continue to rise, with some rate increases even exceeding… 50%.

  From a global perspective, the supply side determines the industry’s future trajectory.

1. The temporary capacity shortage has eased.

In 2020, shipping lines, airlines, and freight forwarding companies all posted solid profits. In 2021, these players began ramping up capacity and investing in infrastructure: some air cargo carriers added more dedicated freighters, while others placed orders for new vessels. Major carriers like Maersk and CMA CGM even started acquiring their own freighters to launch cargo‑only airlines. Meanwhile, several freight forwarders and charter operators also pivoted to establish their own cargo airlines.

Over the past two years, the industry has seen a significant increase in orders for new freighters and new vessels. According to a renowned shipping consultancy, Drewry’s latest container shipping forecast projects that, in terms of vessel orders, shipping companies placed a record 548 ships totaling 4.2 million TEUs in 2021, with the total contracted capacity reaching 5.7 million TEUs.

Under normal circumstances, whether ordering an aircraft or a vessel, the delivery period is generally 2–3 years. Consequently, from the second half of this year through next year, a large number of new vessels and freighters will enter service, adding substantial capacity to the market. With such significant changes on the supply side, the temporary capacity shortages are expected to ease.

In addition, The primary reason for persistently high airfreight rates during the pandemic was the widespread grounding of international passenger flights, which drastically reduced belly‑hold capacity, while full‑cargo aircraft capacity remained severely constrained, driving international airfreight rates steadily upward.

At present, an increasing number of countries are easing international travel restrictions and reopening their borders to allow international flights to resume gradually. As cross-border business travel continues to grow, the belly‑hold capacity of passenger aircraft in countries other than China is expected to recover step by step, thereby reducing reliance on dedicated freighters to some extent.

The development of the global cross-border logistics industry cannot be viewed solely through the lens of China’s supply and demand dynamics; rather, it must be assessed in light of broader factors such as the global economy, industrial revitalization, and evolving pandemic‑response policies to anticipate future market trends.

2. The resurgence of the domestic epidemic has disrupted supply chains, leading to temporary fluctuations in freight rates.

At present, the epidemic in East China remains ongoing, causing disruptions to production and supply chains across multiple sectors in China, including automotive, apparel, and electronics. Class 3C and similar products.

Because these products have extremely long supply chains, and some of the factories are located in East China, if even a single plant along the chain is unable to resume production or if downstream suppliers lack certain raw materials and components, the entire supply chain will be disrupted. This, in turn, can prevent many international trade orders from being delivered on schedule, leading to an increasing number of order cancellations.

Take seasonal apparel for international trade as an example: the Yangtze River Delta region is home to a large number of garment manufacturers, and production facilities typically begin manufacturing second-quarter summer collections in the first quarter. However, due to the pandemic, factories have been unable to resume operations on schedule, while warehouses still hold substantial inventories of raw materials for summer garments.

If resumption of work occurs in the summer, shipping the finished garments overseas at that time would mean missing the peak sales season. For export-oriented factories and foreign‑trade enterprises with seasonal sales cycles, this would undoubtedly add insult to injury.

For overseas companies, it is simply impossible to place orders without production. If Chinese suppliers experience delays in delivery frequency or lead times, these companies will shift their orders to other countries where delivery schedules and logistics are more reliable.

Moreover, the currently high logistics costs of Chinese exports to other countries do not necessarily imply that the shipping costs for goods exported from those countries to third-party nations are also high.

For example, high shipping costs from China to Europe and the United States do not necessarily mean that shipping costs from Southeast Asian countries to these regions will always exceed those from China; moreover, increases in shipping rates may also vary across different periods.

So, what is currently being discussed within the industry… “Involution” primarily refers to the competitive pressure among sellers, platforms, and ancillary service providers within an industry. However, in reality, we’re not just competing with domestic players—we’re engaged in a broader, global race, contending with competitors across multiple dimensions.

As the industry turns inward to compete, what becomes clear is that the pandemic has brought a temporary end to the era of windfall profits.

Roll outward, hone your inner strengths, and compete on the global stage from a higher vantage point!