The industry unanimously believes that autonomous delivery will experience explosive growth within the next three years.

The Beijing Winter Olympics have seen a surge in “unmanned economy” solutions, with one of the standout features being the ubiquitous autonomous delivery vehicles operating throughout the venues. Amid the critical challenge of pandemic control, these unmanned delivery vehicles have played a vital role in minimizing person-to-person contact, helping to build an additional layer of protection against the spread of COVID‑19.

Behind this intelligent and adorable little vehicle lies, in fact, the cutting-edge technological achievements of today’s unmanned delivery industry.

Unmanned delivery, also known as last-mile delivery, currently focuses primarily on two key sectors: express delivery and instant‑delivery services. The latter encompasses food delivery, fresh‑produce home delivery, supermarket retail, and pharmaceutical distribution, among others. Regardless of the specific application, each segment holds substantial market potential.

In fact, China’s express delivery industry entered the “ten-billion‑package” era in 2014, and since then, annual parcel volume has continued to grow at a rapid pace, increasing by roughly 10 billion packages each year. By 2021, China’s total express delivery volume had surpassed 100 billion packages. Faced with this massive market worth hundreds of billions of parcels, the domestic delivery network is sustained by approximately 4 million couriers.

However, as labor costs rise and the shortage of delivery personnel grows, major companies are increasingly investing in the development of autonomous delivery vehicles to replace human workers, aiming to cut costs and boost efficiency. In this untapped market, Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com leverage their existing business operations to gain a competitive edge in real-world applications, while tech‑savvy startups are carving out distinct niches and roles.

At first, autonomous delivery was widely regarded as a purely conceptual project, and even today, it has yet to achieve large-scale commercial deployment. In reality, however, the sector is on the cusp of a major breakthrough, with numerous companies reporting steady progress. Industry insiders unanimously agree that autonomous delivery is poised for explosive growth within the next three years.

I. On the Eve of the Unmanned Delivery Boom: Successes Keep Piling Up

In the unmanned delivery sector, which is poised for a major breakthrough, numerous companies have already reported encouraging progress and achieved significant milestones.

One of them is Neolix, a startup specializing in autonomous vehicles, which told Lieyun.com: “As of last July, we had already generated revenue and achieved profitability per vehicle, with the potential to break even within one year.”

This news has filled all employees of Neolithic Autonomous Vehicles with excitement and confidence, and for the industry peers who have been walking this path alongside us, it is even more like a spotlight illuminating the way forward.

Many leading companies, including WeRide, predict that autonomous patrol vehicles and unmanned vending machines for low-speed cargo‑carrying applications will be deployed within the next two to three years, and Neolix has already taken the first step toward making this a reality.

The primary revenue-generating vehicle for New Stone Age is an L4‑level autonomous mobile delivery cart that operates within industrial parks. It transforms existing restaurants and convenience stores into mobile service points, using driverless technology to deliver goods to high‑demand locations such as subway station exits, office building entrances, and public parks. This is not merely a “mover” for express deliveries and food takeout; it is a “producer” of an entirely new delivery model—a new retail paradigm powered by 5G and data, integrating retail, services, and content distribution. “Although we have already achieved profitability on a per-vehicle basis, there is still considerable room for cost reduction, and our service offerings will become increasingly diversified going forward,” said representatives from Neolix.

In addition, Neolithic’s autonomous vehicles also offer users services such as unmanned security and education, primarily deployed in office parks, central business district core areas, public parks, and select universities.
In addition to the Neolithic autonomous vehicle, other players are also continuously achieving new breakthroughs.

Heima Zhihang, a startup incubated by the traditional automaker Great Wall, has now achieved end-to-end mass production and delivery of low-speed autonomous vehicles. Taking its “Xiao Modian” product as an example, production reached 500 units as of last July. This is made possible by its 5,000-square-meter flexible manufacturing facility in Baoding, specifically designed for L4‑level autonomous service vehicles. The plant supports mixed‑model production and boasts a design capacity of 5,000 units per year. Furthermore, WeRide benefits from its close ties with the traditional automaker Great Wall, leveraging a robust production system, a comprehensive quality‑assurance framework, and an efficient supply‑chain management structure—assets honed through years of large‑scale mass production.

Regarding the development trends of unmanned delivery, JD.com has offered the following assessment to Lieyunwang: “Overall, China’s unmanned delivery sector has entered the stage of small-scale production and commercial deployment, with leading companies all planning to achieve small‑batch production within three years.” WeRide has undoubtedly taken the lead by focusing on low-speed autonomous delivery. While it may not have been the first to develop low-speed autonomous vehicles, it could well be the first to achieve large-scale mass production in this segment.

In WeRide’s strategic framework, the commercialization of autonomous delivery follows the “Three Laws of Autonomous Driving”: progressing from low-speed to high-speed operations, from cargo‑carrying to passenger‑carrying applications, and from commercial to consumer use. Among these, low‑speed, cargo‑carrying, commercial‑grade autonomous solutions—boasting stronger commercial viability and greater opportunities for data collection—are poised to achieve commercial deployment first.

Earlier, WeRide partnered with Meituan to launch the next-generation autonomous delivery vehicle, the “Magic Bag 20,” which boasts standardized mass-production capabilities and L4-level autonomy. The vehicle has already been put into formal commercial operation and, in June last year, was dispatched overnight to Guangzhou’s frontline anti‑epidemic efforts to ensure the timely transport of essential supplies. In addition, WeRide’s fully integrated autonomous delivery vehicles, provided to Wumart Duodian, have now entered routine operations in Beijing’s Shunyi district, having completed nearly a thousand deliveries to date. “We will also establish a closed-loop iteration system based on hundreds of millions of kilometers of real-world user data within this year, becoming the first to achieve a commercial closed loop for low-speed logistics,” said WeRide.

In real-world autonomous‑driving deployments, once a commercial closed loop is established, large‑scale operations will be within reach—and such scale is the most critical factor for the success of autonomous‑driving use cases.

JD.com believes that the rapid deployment of autonomous driving applications hinges on three key factors: productization, large-scale operations, and a viable business model. “The advent of large-scale unmanned delivery operations” On the one hand, this means higher vehicle ownership and richer data, which will drive rapid iteration of autonomous driving technology and further widen its competitive advantages. On the other hand, large-scale operations can accelerate the reduction of both hardware and software costs while enabling autonomous vehicles to become self-sustaining, thereby establishing a positive feedback loop in the business model.
As a result, we may well be on the cusp of an industry boom.

II. “Favorable Timing” and “Harmony Among People”

On the eve of the outbreak, why now?

The emergence of new phenomena is often closely linked to the evolution of social formations, and the current era of rapid change has created numerous favorable conditions for the explosive growth of unmanned delivery.

First, it was triggered by the pandemic.

Take JD.com as an example: following the outbreak of the pandemic, the company had originally planned to begin small-scale mass production of its autonomous delivery vehicles between 2020 and 2021, gradually rolling them out for commercial delivery operations. However, the pandemic accelerated this timeline by roughly six months. WeRide also stated that, over the past two years, the industry has largely remained in its early “from zero to one” phase. However, the COVID‑19 pandemic has served as a significant catalyst for the development of autonomous logistics: “During this period, our order volume has grown substantially, and unmanned delivery is rapidly becoming a part of everyday life.”

Since the onset of the pandemic, the value of autonomous delivery and public awareness of it have both grown significantly, while policy support has provided strong encouragement and recognition. At the market level, this has spurred demand for “contactless delivery” and the “autonomous economy.” Autonomous delivery vehicles have been deployed in hospitals, residential communities, universities, office parks, and other settings across the country, accelerating the ramp-up of mass‑production plans at several companies.

Secondly, the maturation and iteration of technology have propelled the development of autonomous delivery. Zhu Lei, founder of Bai Rhino, stated that the growing maturity of autonomous driving and robotics technologies is undoubtedly a key driver behind the advancement of unmanned delivery.

Furthermore, future societies will face labor shortages and insufficient transport capacity.

In recent years, despite starting from a high base, China’s express delivery and instant‑delivery sectors have continued to grow at a rapid pace. Demand for delivery personnel has been steadily rising, while the supply gap has widened, leaving delivery workers facing sustained high levels of job stress and workload intensity. According to statistics from the State Post Bureau, the total volume of express deliveries in 2020 reached 83 billion parcels, while the number of instant‑delivery orders exceeded 18 billion in 2019. CICC forecasts that instant‑delivery orders will climb to 51.2 billion by 2024. Meanwhile, in 2020, the combined workforce of couriers and food‑delivery riders in China surpassed 10 million, yet delivery capacity still falls short of overall demand, and the continued surge in order volumes will keep putting pressure on last‑mile delivery operations. However, both the number of newborns and the working-age population in China have been declining year after year. According to data released by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, the country’s working-age population began to shrink in 2012, with an average annual decline of more than 3 million people, a trend that is accelerating. It is projected that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, this group will further decrease by 35 million. Meanwhile, the elderly population is expected to exceed 300 million during the same period. This means that the capacity gap in the delivery sector will become increasingly severe.

Based on this assessment, Zhu Lei stated: “Driverless vehicles replacing delivery couriers is a market reality, and commercial deployment is only a matter of time.”

Bai Rhino is a pioneer in L4‑level autonomous last‑mile delivery on public urban roads, and the first company nationwide to deploy driverless fresh‑food and supermarket deliveries on city streets. It currently conducts regular testing and operations of unmanned delivery in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and other cities. It’s as if we’ve already seen what lies on the other side of the river; the pressing question now is how to cross it. How do we move forward? Zhu Lei candidly admits that the key is to align ourselves with the “big ship” in the river—Meituan.

For Meituan, unmanned delivery is both an imperative and a project it is determined to succeed in. Once unmanned delivery truly takes off, Meituan—currently reliant on hiring delivery riders—could significantly reduce its operational and management costs.

Since the outbreak of the pandemic last year, the autonomous delivery team has grown increasingly pivotal within Meituan, and its “autonomous delivery force” is now coming into the spotlight.

Last April, Meituan announced that it would raise US$10 billion through a rights issue and bond issuance, with the proceeds primarily earmarked for R&D and production investments in autonomous vehicles and drones. Industry observers believe that, Raising substantial funds specifically for autonomous‑technology initiatives signals that Meituan will continue to ramp up its investments in unmanned delivery and drone‑based logistics, which could accelerate the deployment and large-scale commercialization of its autonomous‑delivery technologies.

Meanwhile, Meituan CEO Wang Xing previously stated during the earnings call that in recent years, Meituan has been steadily expanding its presence in areas such as robotics. He believes the lifestyle services sector still holds tremendous potential for boosting efficiency and reducing costs. With a substantial business scale and a deeper understanding of user needs, Meituan can leverage cutting-edge technologies to make its operations more efficient and effective, thereby delivering an even better experience for its users. “Meituan is steadily stepping up its investments; they wouldn’t pursue initiatives that lack commercial returns. We trust Meituan’s judgment,” said Zhu Lei.

III. A boom is expected within three years: Internet giants have a strong advantage in real-world use cases, while startups can compete through differentiation.

As early as around 2016, companies such as Meituan, JD.com, and Alibaba began developing related technologies, and in recent years, numerous start-ups in this space have emerged. 2018 marked a peak in investment and financing for the autonomous delivery sector, with frequent rounds of funding for these enterprises.

As unmanned delivery remains in its early stages and requires ongoing investment, capital will be a critical factor for companies to advance R&D, refine their products, and expand into new markets. JD.com, Alibaba, and Meituan—three major internet giants—have invested in this space themselves, while most of the remaining funding has been raised by startups. Bai Xiniu has completed four rounds of financing, while Newstone Robotics and XingShen Intelligence have each secured three rounds. Additionally, companies such as Yiqing Innovation, Ecarx, WeRide, and Zhongyun Intelligent Vehicle have also closed two rounds of funding. The majority of funding rounds are concentrated in the Pre-A and Series A stages, with total financing reaching several hundred million RMB.

According to the latest research report on the last-mile autonomous delivery sector by Chentao Capital, domestic companies currently deploying autonomous delivery operations can broadly be categorized into three types:

One category comprises major internet companies such as Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan, which operate their own logistics and delivery services. These firms are advancing through a strategy of in-house software development, hardware procurement, and self‑operated deployment, aiming to reduce costs and boost efficiency across their logistics networks via autonomous delivery. Currently, all three are in the pilot‑operation phase, serving their internal delivery needs with fleets ranging from several dozen to over a hundred vehicles, and they plan to scale up production and roll out these systems within the next three years.

The second category comprises startups that enter specific application scenarios by leveraging autonomous driving technology, such as Bai Xiniu and XingShen Intelligence. These companies typically begin with R&D in autonomous driving systems and focus on deploying them in niche use cases, aiming to commercialize autonomous technologies in low-speed cargo‑transport settings. For example, Bai Xiniu has partnered with Yonghui Superstores to launch unmanned retail delivery, while XingShen Intelligence has rolled out unmanned delivery and unmanned retail services at Jianghan University and in Suzhou High-Speed Rail New City.

The third category comprises companies with OEM and Tier 1 backgrounds, such as WeRide and Dongfeng. These firms leverage their established foothold in the traditional automotive industry, initially entering the market by supplying chassis and complete vehicles, while touting autonomous delivery solutions and planning to develop operational capabilities. However, according to research conducted by Chentao Capital, at the operational level they remain either unlaunched or still in the early testing phase.
In terms of their business models, these three types of companies each adopt distinct approaches.

The primary business model of major internet companies such as Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan is to serve their own internal operations. At Alibaba, the DAMO Academy develops autonomous‑driving algorithms and products, which are then sold to Cainiao; Cainiao deploys these solutions in specific operational areas like its Cainiao Station network. Similarly, JD.com’s autonomous delivery vehicles currently focus on meeting its own delivery needs, with payment settled on a per‑order basis. Meanwhile, Meituan’s autonomous vehicles primarily support its Meituan Maicai grocery‑delivery service.

In the future, as their autonomous delivery technology matures and their logistics network takes shape, they may gradually begin offering autonomous delivery capacity services to third parties.

Companies such as Bai Rhino, XingShen Intelligence, and WeRide primarily provide autonomous delivery capacity to end‑users. Taking Bai Rhino as an example, it offers unmanned delivery services tailored to the specific needs of its partners, operates its own fleet of autonomous delivery vehicles, and charges fees for these delivery services.

The third monetization model primarily relies on vehicle sales, leasing, and fees for software and hardware solutions, as exemplified by companies such as Newstone, Yiqing Innovation, and WeRide.

Overall, the major internet companies enjoy distinct ecosystem advantages and substantial financial resources, but no single industry can be fully dominated by just a handful of players. This leaves room for startups to compete through differentiation.
Zhu Lei stated: “For this industry, competition among players is not the defining dynamic, and the ‘winner-takes-all’ rule of the internet does not fully apply here. Instead, the shared aspiration today is to jointly build a thriving ecosystem that empowers the entire sector.”

At present, these companies are still in the stage of turning technology into marketable products. Despite making progress at this juncture, significant challenges remain to be overcome. According to Neolix, over the next three years, the autonomous delivery sector is poised for a major boom, with the overall cost of autonomous delivery vehicles expected to drop substantially. Domestically, the autonomous delivery market will soon see self-driving fleets exceeding one thousand vehicles in size.
And this assessment has largely become an industry consensus.

Source: Lieyun.com (ID: ilieyun)

Author: Riemann